CONTENTS
Preface = ⅸ
Part I Thinking in general = 1
1 What is thinking? = 3
Types of thinking = 3
The search-inference framework = 4
Thinking about beliefs = 10
How do search processes work? = 13
Conclusion = 15
2 The study of thinking = 16
Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive = 16
Development of descriptive models = 18
Development of normative models = 25
Development of prescriptive models = 26
Conclusion = 27
3 Good thinking: the nature of rationality = 28
A normative view = 28
Toward a prescriptive model = 30
Rationality = 32
Rationality and belief = 37
Are people ever really irrational? = 41
Conclusion = 41
4 Problem solving = 43
Trial and error versus insight = 43
Functional fixedness and mechanization = 47
Search processes and the structure of problems = 51
Expert versus novice problem solving = 61
Heuristics = 63
Conclusion = 68
5 Learning; basic processes = 69
The nature of memory = 70
Learning to categorize = 75
Transfer, rules, and analogy = 78
Skill = 79
Strategies for learning = 82
Conclusion = 84
6 Learning: complex material = 86
Restructuring = 86
Understanding = 92
Rewards and goals = 101
Conclusion = 103
7 Intelligence = 105
The design(s) of IQ tests = 105
Other uses of the IQ test = 114
Cross-cultural research = 115
What is intelligence? = 117
Conclusion = 122
8 Creativity = 123
Personal testimony and the role of the unconscious = 124
Search, goals, and self-criticism = 127
The development of creative expertise = 130
Tests of creativity = 131
Conclusion = 132
9 Formal logic = 134
What is logic? = 134
Types of logic = 137
Difficulties in logical reasoning = 139
Mental models = 141
Logical errors in hypothesis testing = 144
Effects of prior belief = 150
Conclusion = 151
10 Logic and everyday reasoning = 153
Logic as a standard of thinking = 153
Logical fallacies = 154
Extensions of logic = 161
Conclusion = 166
Part II Probability and belief = 169
11 Normative theory of probability = 171
What is probability? = 174
Constructing personal probability judgments = 179
Well-Justified probability judgments = 181
Evaluating personal probability judgments = 183
Bayes's theorem = 186
Conclusion = 197
12 Descriptive theory of probability judgment = 198
Accuracy of probability judgments = 198
Heuristics and biases in probability judgment = 204
Conclusion: prescriptive theory of probability = 216
13 Hypothesis testing = 218
Hypotheses in science = 219
The psychology of hypothesis testing = 226
Conclusion = 240
14 Judgment of correlation and contingency = 242
Correlation, cause, and contingency = 242
Accuracy of judgment = 244
Attenfional bias = 245
Effects of prior belief = 251
Conclusion = 255
15 Biases and beliefs = 256
Irrational persistence of belief = 257
Determinants of belief persistence = 265
Groupthink = 280
Conclusion = 283
Part III Decisions and plans = 285
16 Normative theory of utility and choice = 287
Expected-utility theory = 290
Why utility theory is normative = 294
The utility of money = 299
Decision analysis = 302
The measurement of utility = 304
Multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) = 312
Conclusion = 317
17 Descriptive theory of utility and choice = 319
Bias in decisions under certainty = 320
Bias in decisions under uncertainty = 326
Prospect theory = 330
Alternatives to prospect theory = 341
The ambiguity effect = 346
Conclusion = 350
18 Quantitative Judgment = 352
Multiple linear regression = 353
The lens model = 355
The mechanism of judgment = 363
Impression formation = 365
Averaging, adding, and the number of cues = 366
Representativeness in numerical prediction = 368
Classification = 370
Conclusion = 372
19 Moral thinking = 374
Morality and utility = 375
The logic and illogic of moral judgments = 376
Utilitarianism as the normative theory = 379
The development of moral thinking = 390
Conclusion = 397
20 Social dilemmas: cooperation versus defection = 399
Laboratory versions = 400
Normative and prescriptive theory of social dilemmas = 403
Motives in social dilemmas = 408
The voter's illusion = 419
Thoughtlessness = 421
Solutions to social dilemmas = 421
Conclusion = 427
21 Decisions about the future = 428
The choice of personal goals = 430
Good reasons for sticking to plans = 432
Bad reasons for sticking to plans: biases = 433
Discounting = 438
Self-control = 443
Emotions and time = 449
Plans and identity = 450
Morality, prudence, and personal plans = 455
Conclusion = 457
Part IV Teaching = 459
22 The teaching of thinking and decision making = 461
What can be taught = 462
Transfer = 467
The design of teaching methods = 472
Teaching decision making = 479
Teaching moral thinking = 480
Teaching thinking versus teaching content = 481
Conclusion = 483
References = 485
Author index = 508
Subject index = 514
