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There is no universally accepted definition of a currency crisis, but most would agree that they all involve one key element: investors fleeing a currency en masse out of fear that it might be devalued, in turn fueling the very devaluation they anticipated. Although such crises—the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the speculations on European currencies in the early 1990s, and the ensuing Mexican, South American, and Asian crises—have played a central role in world affairs and continue to occur at an alarming rate, many questions about their causes and effects remain to be answered. In this wide-ranging volume, some of the best minds in economics focus on the historical and theoretical aspects of currency crises to investigate three fundamental issues: What drives currency crises? How should government behavior be modeled? And what are the actual consequences to the real economy?Reflecting the latest thinking on the subject, this offering from the NBER will serve as a useful basis for further debate on the theory and practice of speculative attacks, as well as a valuable resource as new crises loom.

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CONTENTS

Acknowledgments = ⅸ

Introduction / Paul Krugman = 1

1. Currency Crisis and Unemployment : Sterling in 1931 / Barry Eichengreen ; Olivier Jeanne = 7

2. Political Contagion in Currency Crises / Allan Drazen = 47

3. Balance-of-Payments Crises in Emerging Markets : Large Capital Inflows and Sovereign Governments / Guillermo A. Calvo = 71

4. The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis / Steven Radelet ; Jeffrey Sachs = 105

5. Is Launching the Euro Unstable in the Endgame? / Robert P. Flood ; Peter M. Garber = 163

6. The Mexican Peso in the Aftermath of the 1994 Currency Crisis / Sebastian Edwards ; Miguel A. Savastano = 183

7. The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup : Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch? / Robert J. Gordon = 241

8. Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises : Empirical Regularities / Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti ; Assaf Razin = 285

9. Panel Presentation : The Asian Model, the Miracle, the Crisis, and the Fund / Jeffrey A. Frankel = 327

10. Panel Presentation : Involving the Private Sector in Crisis Resolution / Peter B. Kenen = 339

Contributors = 345

Author Index = 347

Subject Index = 351