상세정보

1. Geophysics.- Karl Popper and the accountability of scientific models.- Evaluation of forecasts.- The Liouville equation and prediction of forecast skill.- An improved formula to describe error growth in meteorological models.- Searching for periodic motions in long-time series.- Comparison study of the response of the climate system to major volcanic eruptions and el nino events.- Detection of a pertubed equator-pole temperature gradient in a spectral model of the atmospheric circulation.- A simple two-dimensional climate model with ocean and atmosphere coupling.- Climate modelling at different scales of space.- 2. Agriculture.- Simulation of effects of climatic change on cauliflower production.- Validation of large scale process-oriented models for managing natural resource populations: a case study.- Uncertainty of predictions in supervised pest control in winter wheat, its price and its causes.- The implications and importance of non-linear responses in modelling the growth and development of wheat.- Growth curve analysis of sedentary plant parasitic nematodes in relation to plant resistance and tolerance.- 3. Population Biology.- Using chaos to understand biological dynamics.- Qualitative analysis of unpredictability: a case study from childhood epidemics.- Control and prediction in seasonally driven population models.- Simple theoretical models and population predictions.- Individual based population modelling.- Ecological systems are not dynamical systems: some consequences of individual variability.- Spatio-temporal organization mediated by hierarchy in time scales in ensembles of predator-prey pairs.- Continental expansion of plant disease: a survey of some recent results.- Modelling of fish behavior.- 4. Systems sciences.- Understanding uncertain environmental systems.- System identification by approximate realization.- Sensitivity analysis versus uncertainty analysis: when to use what?.- Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources.- Assessing sensitivities and uncertainties in models: a critical evaluation.- UNCSAM: a software tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mathematical models.- Set-membership identification of nonlinear conceptual models.- Parameter sensitivity and the quality of model predictions.- Towards a metrics for simulation model validation.- Use of a Fourier decomposition technique in aquatic ecosystems modelling.- Multiobjective inverse problems with ecological and economical motivations.- An expert-opinion approach to the prediction problem in complex systems.- 5. Environmental Sciences.- Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery.- Uncertainty analysis on critical loads for forest soils in Finland.- Monte Carlo simulations in ecological risk assessment.- Sensitivity analysis of a model for pesticide leaching and accumulation.- Bayesian uncertainty analysis in water quality modelling.- Modelling dynamics of air pollution dispersion in mesoscale.- Uncertainty factors analysis in linear water quality models.- Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment combined: application to a bioaccumulation model.- Diagnosis of model applicability by identification of incompatible data sets illustrated on a pharmacokinetic model for dioxins in mamals.- Regional calibration of a steady state model to assess critical acid loads.- Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concentrations in IMAGE.- 6. Economics.- Forecast uncertainty in economics.- Some aspects of nonlinear discrete-time descriptor systems in economics.- Quasi-periodic and strange, chaotic attractors in Hick's nonlinear trade cycle model.- Monte Carlo experimentation for large scale forward-looking economic models.- Erratic dynamics in a restricted tatonnement process with two and three goods.- Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generation model: a numerical investigation.- Nonlinearity and forecasting aspects of periodically integra...

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CONTENTS
Introduction / J. Grasman ; G. van Straten = 1
1. Geophysics
  Karl Popper and the accountability of scientific models / H. Tennekes = 6
  Evaluation of forecasts / A.M. Murphy ; M. Ehrendorfer = 11
  The Liouville equation and prediction of forecast skill / M. Ehrendorfer = 29
  An Improved formula to deseribe error growth in meteorological moelds / J.E. Royer ; R. Stroe ; M. D e ´ qu e ´ ; S. Vannitsem = 45
  Searching for periodic motions in long-time series / R.A. Pasmanter = 57
  Comparison study of the response of the elimate system to major volcanie eruptions and el nino events / W. B o ·· hme = 65
  Detection of a Pertubed equator-pole temperature gradient in a spectral model of the atmospheric circulation / S.L.I. Mous = 86
  A simple two-dimensional climate model with ocean and atmosphere coupling / E.I.N. Veling ; M.E. Wit = 95
  Climate modelling at different scales of space / G. Maracchi = 113
2. Agriculture
  Simulation of effects of climatic change on cauliflower production / J.E. Olesen ; K. Grevsen = 127
  Validation of large scale process-oriented models for managing natural resource popuations : a case study / R.A. Fleming ; C.A. Shoemaker = 138
  Uncertainty of predications in supervised pest control in winter wheat, its price and its causes / W.A.H. Rossing ; R.A. Daanen ; E.M.T. Hendrix ; M.J.W. Jansen = 149
  The Implications and importance of non-linear responses in modelling the growth and development of whaeat / M.A. Semeonov ; J.R. Porter = 157
  Growth curve analysis of sedentary plant parasitic nematodes in relation to plant resistance and tolerance / R.J.F. van Haren ; E.M.L. Hendrikx ; H.I. Atkinson = 172
3. Population Biology
  Using chaos to understand biological dynamics / B.E. Kendall ; W.M. Schaffer ; L.F. Olsen ; C.W. Tidd ; B.L. Jorgersen = 184
  Qualitative analysis of unpredictability : a case study from childhood epidemics / R. Engbert ; F.R. Drepper = 204
  Control and prediction in seasonally driven population models / I.B. Schwartz ; I. Triandaf = 216
  Simple theoretical models and population predictions / A.A. Berryman ; M. Munster-Swendsen = 228
  Individual based population modelling / S.A.L.M. Kooijman = 232
  Ecological systems are not dynamical systems : some consequenses of individula variability / V. Grimm ; J. Uchma n ´ ski = 248
  Spatio-temporal organization mediated by hierarchy in time scales in ensembles of predator-prey pairs / C. Pahl-wostl = 260
  Continental expansion of plant disease : a survey of some recent results / F. van den Bosch ; J.C. zadoks ; J.A.J. Metz = 274
  Modelling of fish behavior / J.G. Balchen = 282
4. Systems sciences
  Understanding uncertain environmental systems / M.B. Beck = 294
  System indentification by approximate realization / C. Heij = 312
  Sensitivity analysis versus uncertainty analysis : when to use what? / J.P.C. Kelijnen = 322
  Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources / M.J.W. Jansen ; W.A.H. Rossing ; R.A. Daanen = 334
  Assessing sensitivities and uncertainties in models : a critical evaluation / P.H.M. Janssen = 344
  UNCSAM : a software tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mathematical models / P.S.C. Heuberger ; P.H.M. Janssen = 362
  Set-Membership identification of nonlinear conceptual models / K.J. Keesman = 377
  Parameter sensitivity and the quality of model predictions / H.J. Poethke ; D. Oertel ; A. Seitz = 389
  Towards a metrics for simulation model validation / H. Scholten ; M.W.M. ; der Tol = 398
  Use of a Fourier decomposition technique in aquatic ecosystems modelling / I. Masliev = 411
  Multiobjective inverse problems with ecological and economical motivations / O.I. Nikonov = 422
  An expert-opinion approach to the prediction problem in complex systems / G.J. Komen = 432
5. Environmental Sciences
  Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery / J.P. Hettelingh ; M. Posch = 439
  Uncertainty analysis on critical loads for forest soils in Finland / M.P. Johansson ; P.H.M. Janssen = 447
  Monte Carlo simulations in ecological risk assessment / U. Hommen ; U. D u ·· lmer ; H.T. Ratte = 460
  Sensitivity analysis of a model for pesticide leaching and accumulation / A. Tiktak ; F.A. Swartijes ; R. sanders ; P.H.M. Janssen = 471
  Bayesian Uncertainty analysis in water quality modelling / P. R. G. Kramer ; A.C.M. de Nijs ; T. Aldenberg = 485
  Modelling dynamics of air pollution dispersion in mesoscale / P. Holnicki = 495
  Uncertainty factors analysis in linear water quality models / A. Kraszewski ; R. Soncini-Sessa = 505
  Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment combined : application to a bioaccumuation model / T.P. Traas ; T. Aldenberg = 516
  Diagnosis of model applicability by identification of incompatible data sets illustrated on a pharmacokinetic model for dioxins in mamals / O. Kepper ; W. Slob = 527
  Regional calibration of a steady state model to assess critical acid loads / H. Kros ; P.S.C. Heuberger ; P.H.M. Janssen ; W. de Vries = 541
  Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concetrations in IMAGE / M.S. Krol = 554
6. Economics
  Forecast uncertainty in economics / F.J.H. Don = 568
  Some aspects of nonlinear discrete-time descriptor systems in economics / Th. Fliegner ; H. Nijmeijer ; U ·· . Kotta = 581
  Quasi-periodic and strange, chaotic attractors in Hick's nonlinear trade cycle model / C.H. Hommes = 591
  Monte Carlo experimentation for large scale forward-looking economic models / R. Boucekkine = 599
  Erratic dynamics in a restricted tatonnement process with two and three goods / C. Weddepohl = 609
  Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generation model : a numerical investigation / C.H. Hommes ; S.J. ; Strien ; R.G. de Vilder = 621
  Nonlinearity and forecasting aspects of periodically integrated autoregressions / P.H. Franses = 633
  Classical and modified rescaled range analysis : Some evidence / B. Jacobsen = 638
Subject index = 648