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Since it first exploded onto the markets in 1974, THE FUTURES GAME has helped thousands of traders gain an intelligent understanding of futures markets. Over the years, Richard Teweles and Frank Jones have kept their fingers on the pulse of the dynamic futures trading industry, first updating their classic text in 1987. Now, this third edition of THE FUTURES GAME has been completely updated and revised to keep all participants--whether speculators or hedgers, new or veteran--one step ahead of this fast moving, high-stakes game. Combining two decades of strength and wisdom with todayÕs most innovative research and strategic recommendations, this guide to the futures markets continues its reign as the number one tool for futures trading mastery. THE FUTURES GAME, 3rd Edition, walks you through the universe of futures trading possibilities and opportunities, starting with an in-depth discussion of market basics that includes the nature of the contract, the organized markets for those contracts, and the relationship between cash and futures prices. The elements of successful trading are isolated, described, and analyzed to make you familiar with profitable decision-making processes. After that, detailed chapters devoted to particular markets explain price determinants and speculative possibilities within currencies, commodities, and stock index futures. "Notes from a Trader" sections go beyond theory and speculation to provide valuable tips and pointers -- expert guidance you can use to squeeze the maximum benefit from each trade. The comprehensive facts and insights packed into this traderÕs bible will help you predict what might happen--and why it might happen--in virtually every kind of market. New information in this important third edition includes: Latest research on important topics including efficient market hypothesis, technical and fundamental analysis, and much more É A comprehensive listing of valuable Internet website names and addresses. Stronger emphasis on financial instruments É Innovative strategies for maneuvering through the increasingly important international market É Completely revised sections devoted to Basics of the Game, Playing the Game, How to Win or Lose, Succeeding as a Broker, and Choosing the Correct Markets. Filled with knowledgeable trading strategies and insights, revealing charts on todayÕs most interesting futures markets, and numerous respected trading approaches that will allow you to craft a style based on your own strengths and requirements, THE FUTURES GAME is likely to become the one resource you refer to most often.

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CONTENTS

Preface = xxiii

PART ONE BASICS OF THE GAME = 1

 Chapter 1 Why Trade Futures? = 3

  Introduction = 3

  Economic Function of the Speculator = 4

  Speculating or Gambling? = 5

  The Evolution of Futures Trading = 6

  Development of the Futures Contract = 9

  Attacks against Futures Trading = 13

  Why Do Speculators Speculate? = 17

  Speculate in What? = 18

  Futures versus Securities and Other Speculations = 19

  Should You Speculate? = 24

 Chapter 2 The Nature of the Futures Markets = 27

  Introduction = 27

  Nature of the Contract = 28

  Nature of Exchange Operations = 29

  Nature of the Open Interest = 33

   Speculators = 34

   Floor Traders = 35

   Hedgers = 36

  Nature of Cash and Futures Price Relations = 37

   Introduction = 37

   Hedging Carried Out to Eliminate the Risks Associated with Price Fluctuations = 38

   Hedging Carried Out to Reduce the Risks Associated with Price Fluctuations = 39

  Hedging Carried Out to Profit from Movements in the Basis = 41

  Hedging Carried Out to Maximize Expected Returns for a Given Risk (Variability of Return) or Minimize Risk for a Given Expected Return = 49

  Critical Comment = 50

 Chapter 3 The Mechanics of Futures Trading = 70

  Introduction = 70

  The Firm = 70

  Opening the Account = 72

  Contract Information = 74

  Daily Trading Limits = 91

  Taking a Position = 92

  Liquidating a Position = 93

  Types of Orders = 94

  Daily Operating Statement = 97

  Buying Power = 98

  The Monthly Statement = 98

  Regulatory Requirements = 100

  Tax Considerations = 102

   Capital Gains Treatment = 102

   Other Issues = 104

 Chapter 4 The Behavior of Futures Prices = 105

  Introduction = 105

  The Efficient-Market Hypothesis = 107

   Premises = 108

   Behavior of Traders = 109

  Empirical Studies = 112

   Introduction = 112

   Level One : Weak-Form Efficiency = 114

    Price Patterns = 114

    Filter Rules = 117

    Trend-Following Strategies = 120

    Spectral Analysis = 121

    Chaos Theory = 122

   Level Two : Semistrong Efficiency = 123

   Level Three : Strong-Form Efficiency = 125

  Is There a Risk Premium in Futures Prices? = 125

   Statistical Evidence = 126

   Other Causes of Bias = 133

  Notes from a Trader = 134

PART TWO PLAYING THE GAME - TRADING = 137

 Chapter 5 Approaches to Trade Selection : Fundamentals = 139

  Decision Making = 139

   Introduction = 39

   The Efficient Market - A Reprise = 140

   Specific Approaches = 141

   The Fundamental Approach = 142

   Model Building = 145

   Explaining versus Forecasting = 147

   Keys to Better Forecasting = 148

  Notes from a Trader = 150

   Basic Data = 151

   The Analytical Framework = 151

   Opportunity Cost of Capital = 152

   Increased Market Efficiency = 152

 Chapter 6 Approaches to Trade Selection : Technical Analysis = 154

  Introduction = 154

  Patterns on Price Charts = 156

   Bar Charts = 157

   Point-and-Figure Charts = 159

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Price Patterns in Trading = 161

    The Advantages = 161

    The Disadvantages = 163

  Trend-Following Methods = 163

   Moving Averages = 164

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Trend-Following Methods = 167

    The Advantages = 167

    The Disadvantages = 167

  Character-of-Market Analysis = 167

   Oscillators = 168

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using the Oscillator = 169

    The Advantages = 169

    The Disadvantages = 170

   Traditional Volume and Open-Interest Methods = 171

   Striking the Balance-Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Traditional Volume and Open-Interest Methods = 174

    The Advantages = 174

    The Disadvantages = 174

   Analysis of Open Interest to Determine Activities of Large and Small Traders = 174

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Open Interest to Reveal the Activities of Large and Small Traders = 175

    The Advantages = 175

    The Disadvantages = 176

   Contrary Opinion = 176

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Contrary Opinion = 179

    The Advantages = 179

    The Disadvantages = 180

  Structural Theories = 180

   Seasonal Price Movements = 181

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Seasonal = 182

    The Advantages = 182

    The Disadvantages = 182

   Time Cycles = 183

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Time Cycles = 184

    The Advantages = 184

    The Disadvantages = 184

   The Elliott Wave Theory = 185

   Striking the Balance - Advantages and Disadvantages of Using the Elliott Wave Theory = 187

    The Advantages = 187

    The Disadvantages = 187

  Notes from a Trader = 189

 Chapter 7 Spreads = 191

  Introduction = 191

  Spreads = 191

   Significance of Price Differences = 193

   Spread Positions = 196

   Intracommodity Spreads = 196

   Intercommodity Spreads = 199

   Intermarket Spreads = 200

   Combinations = 201

   Low-Risk Spreads = 201

   Tax Spreads = 203

   Problems = 203

   Mistakes = 205

  Notes from a Trader = 209

 Chapter 8 Options = 211

  Development of Options on Futures = 211

  Futures vs. Options = 215

   Futures = 215

   Options = 215

  The Development of the Option Pricing Model = 217

   Calls = 219

   Puts = 227

  Strategies = 230

   Bull Strategies = 231

   Bear Strategies = 232

  Combinations of Futures and Options - The Tinkertoy Approach = 232

   Futures = 233

   Puts from Calls and Futures = 233

   Other Strategies = 235

    Straddles = 236

    Spreads = 238

  Overview and Conclusions = 242

  Notes from a Trader = 242

 Chapter 9 The Game Plan = 246

  Introduction = 246

  The Broad Plan = 248

  Key Elements of the Plan = 250

   Capital = 250

   Trade Selection and Evaluation = 251

    Choosing a Trade-Selection Method = 251

    Evaluating a Trade-Selection Method = 254

   Number of Markets to Follow = 256

   Time Horizon = 257

   Adding to Positions = 258

   Stops = 259

  The Plan in Action = 261

   Form of the Plan = 261

   A Specific Plan = 266

  Commodity Pools and Managed Funds = 269

  Structure of a Commodity Pool = 271

   The Growth of Managed Futures Funds = 271

   Public Funds, Private Funds, and Investment Advisory Services = 272

   Selecting a Fund = 273

  Mistakes = 274

  Notes from a Trader = 276

 Chapter 10 Money Management = 277

  Introduction = 277

  Expectation of the Game Played = 278

   Probability = 278

   Payoff = 279

   Fair Bets = 282

   Good Bets = 282

   Bad Bets = 283

   Strategy for a Favorable Game = 284

   Real-Time Validation = 285

  Probability of Ruin = 288

   Conceptual Foundation = 288

   Multiple Positions = 291

   Stop-Loss Points = 293

   Strategy Following Significant Success = 294

   Strategy Following Significant Adversity = 295

   Systems = 296

   Size of Commitments = 299

  Notes from a Trader = 301

PART THREE LOSERS AND WINNERS = 305

 Chapter 11 Who Wins? Who Loses? And Why? = 307

  Introduction = 307

  Distribution of Profits and Losses = 308

   The Blair Stewart Study = 308

   The Hieronymus Study = 310

   The Houthakker Study = 311

   The Rockwell Study = 312

   The Ross Study = 322

   The Hartzmark and Leuthold Studies = 322

   The Gilbert and Brunetti Study = 323

   Additional Evidence = 325

  Skills of the Trader = 325

   Forecasting Skills = 325

   Behavioral Skills = 327

  Notes from a Trader = 331

PART FOUR THE BROKER IN THE GAME = 333

 Chapter 12 Building, Maintaining, and Servicing a Futures Clientele = 335

  Introduction = 335

  Building a Futures Clientele = 335

   Sales Personality = 335

   Industry Knowledge = 337

   Prospect Knowledge = 339

   Skill in Selling = 341

  Maintaining a Futures Clientele = 346

  Servicing a Futures Clientele = 347

  Appendix : Preparation for the National Commodity Futures Examinations = 351

 Chapter 13 Compliance : I'll See You in Court = 355

  Introduction = 355

  Sources of Problems and Their Prevention = 356

   Soliciting the Account = 356

    The Registered Commodity Representative = 356

    Representations = 356

   Opening the Account = 357

    Suitability = 357

    Risk Letters = 359

    Special Types of Accounts = 361

    Deposit of Funds = 361

   Handling the Account = 362

    Trade Suggestions = 362

    Documentation of Orders = 363

    Discretion = 364

    Record Keeping = 364

    Churning = 365

    Margins = 366

   Dealing with Irreconcilable Differences = 368

    The Complaint = 368

    Legal Action = 369

    The Formal Demand = 369

     The Arenas = 370

   Notes from a Trader = 371

    The Customer = 371

    The Broker = 372

PART FIVE CHOOSING THE GAME - MARKETS = 373

 Chapter 14 General Sources of Information = 375

  Periodicals = 375

  Historical and Real-Time Price Data = 376

  Trading and Research Software = 377

  Books = 377

  Government and Regulatory Agencies = 377

   U.S. Grains = 378

   U.S. Oilseeds = 378

   U.S. Cotton = 378

   U.S. Livestock = 379

   World Acreage and Production Reports by Country = 379

  Exchanges = 381

  The Internet = 386

  Notes from a Trader = 387

 Chapter 15 The Interest Rate Futures Market = 388

  Introduction = 388

  The Interest Rate Complex = 389

  Prices and Delivery Months = 390

  Supply = 391

  Demand = 391

  Determinants of Interest Rates = 391

  Hedge Uses = 394

   The Long Hedge = 394

   The Short Hedge = 395

   The Duration-Adjusted Hedge = 395

  Speculative Uses = 396

  Arbitrage Strategies = 396

  Notes from a Trader = 398

 Chapter 16 The Foreign Currency Futures Markets = 400

  Introduction = 400

  Available Contracts = 404

  Determinants of Exchange Rates = 404

   Purchasing Power Parity - the Law of One Price = 405

   Balance of Payments = 406

   Monetary Policy = 409

   Fiscal Policy = 409

   Central Bank Intervention = 411

  Hedge Uses = 412

  Speculative Uses = 413

  Notes from a Trader = 417

 Chapter 17 Grains and Oilseeds = 418

  Introduction = 418

  The Soybean Complex = 418

   Soybeans = 420

   Soybean Meal = 421

   Soybean Oil = 423

   Price Determinants = 426

   Futures Contracts = 430

   Hedging Uses = 431

   Speculative Uses = 432

   Sources of Information - The Soybean Complex = 433

   Notes from a Trader = 434

  Grains - Domestic = 435

   Wheat = 435

    Introduction = 435

    Supply = 435

    Demand = 438

    Price Determinants = 438

    Futures Contracts = 440

    Pricing of Futures Contracts = 442

    Speculative Uses = 442

    Notes from a Trader = 444

   Corn = 445

    Introduction = 445

    Supply = 445

    Demand = 448

    Price Determinants = 448

    Government Policies = 451

    Futures Contracts = 452

    Pricing of Futures Contracts = 452

    Speculative Uses = 452

   Oats = 453

    Introduction = 453

    Supply = 453

    Demand = 455

    Price Determinants = 455

    Futures Contracts = 456

    Speculative Uses = 457

    Notes from a Trader - Corn and Oats = 457

   Sources of Information - Wheat, Corn, and Oats = 458

  Canadian Markets = 459

   Flaxseed = 459

    Introduction = 459

    Supply = 460

    Futures Contract = 460

   Canola = 460

    Introduction = 460

    Supply = 462

    Demand = 463

    Futures Contract = 463

   Barley = 463

    Introduction = 463

    Supply = 463

    Demand = 464

    Futures Contract = 465

   Speculative Uses of Canadian Futures Contracts = 466

   Sources of Information - Canadian Markets = 467

   Notes from a Trader - Canadian Markets = 468

 Chapter 18 The Meat Futures Contracts = 469

  The Beef Complex = 470

   Introduction = 470

   Supply = 471

    Cow-Calf Operation = 472

    The Feedlot = 474

    The Packer = 476

    The Pipeline Method = 477

    The Cattle Cycle = 478

   Demand = 482

   Price Determinants = 482

   Futures Pricing = 485

   Futures Contracts = 486

   Hedge Uses = 488

   Speculative Uses = 490

   Sources of Information = 490

   Notes from a Trader = 492

   The Pork Complex = 492

    Introduction = 492

    Supply = 493

     The Pipeline Approach = 499

     Variations Affecting the Pipeline Approach = 499

    Demand = 499

    Price Determinants = 501

    Futures Contracts = 501

    Speculative Uses = 503

    Sources of Information = 505

    Notes from a Trader = 507

 Chapter 19 Precious and Industrial Metals = 509

  Precious Metals = 509

   Gold = 509

    Introduction = 509

    Supply = 511

    Demand = 511

    Price Determinants = 511

    Futures Contracts = 513

    Speculative Uses = 514

   Silver = 516

    Introduction = 516

    Supply = 516

    Demand = 516

    Price Determinants = 519

    Futures Contracts = 519

    Speculative Uses = 520

   Platinum = 521

    Introduction = 521

    Supply = 522

    Demand = 522

    Pricing = 522

    Speculative Uses = 525

   Palladium = 526

   Notes from a Trader - Precious Metals = 527

  Industrial Metals = 528

   Copper = 528

    Introduction = 528

    Supply = 529

    Demand = 530

    Price Determinants = 531

    Futures Contracts = 532

   Aluminum = 533

    Introduction = 533

    Supply = 534

    Demand = 537

    Price Determinants = 537

    Futures Contracts = 538

    Speculative Uses = 539

   Other Base Metals = 540

    Lead = 540

    Nickel = 541

    Tin = 541

    Zinc = 542

  Notes from a Trader - Commercial Metals = 543

 Chapter 20 The Energy Markets = 544

  Introduction = 544

  Supply = 545

  Demand = 550

   Crude Oil = 550

   Heating Oil = 552

   Unleaded Gasoline = 553

   Natural Gas = 553

   Liquefied Propane Gas = 553

   Other Refinery Products = 554

    Kerosene and Jet Fuel = 554

    Residual fuel oil = 554

  Price Determinants = 555

  Futures Contracts = 556

  Speculative Uses = 559

  Notes from a Trader = 563

  Sources of Information = 564

 Chapter 21 The Food, Fiber, and Wood Products Markets = 566

  Coffee = 566

   Introduction = 566

   Supply = 567

   Demand = 571

   Price Determinants = 573

   Futures Contracts = 575

   Speculative Uses = 576

   Sources of Information = 577

   Notes from a Trader - Coffee = 577

  Sugar = 578

   Introduction = 578

   Supply = 579

   Demand = 583

   Price Determinants = 584

    International Sugar Agreement = 585

    Government Programs = 586

   Futures Contracts = 587

   Speculative Uses = 588

   Sources of Information = 589

   Notes from a Trader - Sugar = 589

  Cocoa Beans = 590

   Introduction = 590

   Supply = 590

   Demand = 596

   Price Determinants = 596

   Futures Contracts = 598

   Speculative Uses = 599

   Sources of Information = 599

   Notes from a Trader - Coffee = 599

  Cotton = 600

   Introduction = 600

   Supply = 600

   Demand = 603

   Price Determinants = 604

   Futures Contracts = 607

   Sources of Information = 608

   Notes from a Trader - Cotton = 609

  Orange Juice = 609

   Introduction = 609

   Supply = 613

   Demand = 614

   Price Determinants = 614

   Futures Contracts = 615

   Speculative Uses = 616

   Sources of Information = 617

   Notes from a Trader - Orange Juice = 618

  Lumber = 618

   Introduction = 618

   Supply = 619

   Demand = 620

   Price Determinants = 622

   Futures Contracts = 623

   Speculative Uses = 626

   Sources of Information = 626

   Notes from a Trader - Lumber = 627

  Other Markets = 627

   Butter = 627

   Cheddar Cheese = 628

   Milk = 629

   Shrimp = 630

  Notes from a Trader - Other Markets = 631

 Chapter 22 Index-based Futures Contracts = 632

  Stock Index Futures = 632

   Introduction = 632

   Hedging Uses of Stock Index Futures = 635

    Determinants of Stock Index Futures Prices = 639

     Corporate Profits = 639

     Interest Rates (Bills and Bond Prices) = 639

     Economic Conditions = 640

     Expectations = 640

    Arbitrage = 643

    Speculative Uses = 644

    Notes from a Trader - Stock Index Futures = 647

  Bond-index Futures = 649

   Municipal Bond index Futures = 649

    Introduction = 649

    Uses for the Muni Bond Contract = 651

  Commodity-Indexed Futures = 651

  The Commodity Research Bureau Index = 652

  Advantages of the CRB Index = 654

  The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index = 654

  Advantages of the GSCI = 656

  Notes from a Trader - Index-based Futures Contracts = 657

Index = 659