상세정보

Could the 38th Parallel - the last remaining Cold War frontier - collapse as did the Berlin Wall? Many observers believe that significant change between North and South Korea is only a matter of time and that Korean unification - whether it occurs abruptly or over time - is all but certain. In that event, the United States and the Republic of Korea will have to reexamine the longer-term basis of their alliance and the need for continued security cooperation.A New Alliance for the Next Century seeks to contribute to the reexamination of the U.S.-ROK security relationship. In this collaborative effort of RAND and the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses, the two research teams intensively review the past history and present status of the U.S.-ROK alliance and assess the alliance's future development in light of regional and local challenges. The authors identify a range of outcomes based on alternative models of the future U.S.-ROK security relationship and offer a framework for evaluating the suitability, feasibility and flexibility of their security-planning alternatives.Both research teams believe that their potential for a post-unification alliance clearly exists, but that such an alliance, and the strategic planning it entails, need to be managed effectively by the political and military leaderships of the United States and the Republic of Korea. Looking beyond present realities is more important now than at any time in the history of the alliance, and the process of planning for the future must begin now.

정보제공 :

CONTENTS
Preface = ⅲ
Figures = xi
Summary = xiii
Acknowledgments = xxiii
Acronyms = xxv
Chapter One WHY A NEW ALLIANCE? = 1
 Profound Changes Are Possible = 1
 Cold War Security Arrangements May No Longer Work = 3
 Alternative Security Arrangements Must Be Identified = 4
 The Alternatives Must Then Be Evaluated = 5
 Different Alternative Paths Must Also Be Examined = 7
 Both the United States and the Republic of Korea Must Prepare Alternative Security Arrangements = 7
 Organization of This Report = 8
Chapter Two RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT = 11
 Reviewing the Historical Record = 11
 Emerging Challenges = 14
  Russia = 16
  China = 17
  Japan = 18
  Need for New Institutional Arrangements = 19
  East Asia's Economic Transformation = 19
  Potential for Military Conflict = 21
 Summary = 21
Chapter Three IDENTIFYING SECURITY ALTERNATIVES = 23
 Alternative One: A Robust Peninsular Alliance = 25
  Peninsular Security Situation = 25
  Security Cooperation = 26
  Obligations of Each Country = 27
 Alternative Two: A Reconfigured Peninsular Alliance = 28
  Peninsular Security Situation = 28
  Security Cooperation = 29
  Obligations of Each Country = 29
 Alternative Three: A Regional Security Alliance = 30
  Peninsular Security Situation = 30
  Security Cooperation = 30
  Obligations of Each Country = 31
 Alternative Four: A Political Alliance = 32
  Peninsular Security Situation = 32
  Security Cooperation = 33
  Obligations of Each Country = 33
 Comparing the Security Alternatives = 33
Chapter Four EVALUATING THE SECURITY ALTERNATIVES = 35
 Possible Peninsular Phases = 36
  Phase One: The Status Quo = 36
  Phase Two: Accommodation and Integration = 37
  Phase Three: Post-Unification = 38
 Criteria for Evaluation = 39
  Suitability = 40
  Feasibility = 41
  Flexibility = 42
 Discussion of Research Findings = 43
  Suitability = 45
  Feasibility = 45
  Flexibility = 47
  1. A Robust Peninsular Alliance = 48
  2. A Reconfigured Peninsular Alliance = 48
  3. A Regional Security Alliance = 49
  4. A Political Alliance = 49
 Summary = 50
Chapter Five EXAMINING TRANSITION PATHS TO THE NEXT CENTURY = 53
 Operational Components of Alliance Relationships = 53
 End States as Determinants of Transition Paths = 54
  Path Number 1 = 56
  Path Number 2 = 57
  Path Number 3 = 59
  Path Number 4 = 60
 Summary = 62
Chapter Six CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY = 63
 Threats and Dangers = 64
 Future Opportunities = 67
 Toward a New Strategic Concept = 70
  A Profit-Generating Alliance = 70
  Alliance Benefits = 72
  Alliance Challenges = 73
  Issues for Both Governments = 74
 A Statement of Security Expectations = 75