CONTENTS
List of Figures = ⅹ
List of Tables = xiv
Preface = xvi
1 Introduction = 1
The chapters = 2
2 Some Basic Concepts in International Finance = 10
2.1 The exchange rate = 10
2.2 The balance of payments accounts = 14
2.3 Purchasing power parity = 18
2.4 Floating exchange rates: prospect and retrospect = 19
2.5 Exchange rate volatility = 22
3 Spot and Forward Exchange Rates: Some More Basic Ideas = 24
3.1 The elasticities view of the exchange rate = 24
3.2 The forward exchange rate, arbitrage, and pure speculation = 32
3.3 Covered interest rate parity-empirical evidence = 38
3.4 Uncovered interest rate parity-empirical evidence = 40
3.5 Real interest rate parity-empirical evidence = 41
4 Income and the Balance of Payments = 44
4.1 The foreign trade multiplier = 45
4.2 The equilibrium real exchange rate = 46
4.3 An early view of economic management = 49
4.4 The assignment problem = 50
4.5 The absorption approach = 52
4.6 Intertemporal utility maximization and the current account = 56
4.7 Twin deficits = 58
4.8 Foreign repercussions with no capital mobility = 59
5 Macroeconomics in an Open Economy: The Mundell-Fleming Model and Some Extensions = 67
5.1 The "base-line" Mundell-Fleming model = 68
5.2 The large country case = 75
5.3 Insulation and the Mundell-Fleming model = 76
5.4 Imperfect capital mobility and the Mundell-Fleming model = 77
5.5 Regressive expectations and monetary- fiscal policy = 80
5.6 The J curve effect and regressive expectations = 83
5.7 Wealth effects = 84
5.8 Aggregate supply, the real balance effect, and the exchange rate in the Mundell-Fleming model = 85
5.9 Summary and conclusions = 91
6 International Policy Coordination = 94
6.1 The two-country Mundell-Fleming model and macroeconomic interdependence = 95
6.2 The potential gains from policy coordination = 106
6.3 Dynamic games, and the sustainability and reputation credibility of international cooperation = 113
6.4 Some evidence on the potential benefits of coordination = 115
6.5 Potential impediments to policy coordination and the appropriate form of such coordination = 117
7 Purchasing Power Parity: Theory and Evidence = 122
7.1 The absolute and relative purchasing power parity concepts = 123
7.2 The efficient markets view of purchasing power parity = 125
7.3 Further interpretation of purchasing power parity = 127
7.4 The empirical validity of purchasing power parity = 134
7.5 Concluding comments = 153
8 The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments = 155
8.1 What is so different about the monetary approach? = 156
8.2 The global monetarist model = 159
8.3 Sterilization and the reserve offset coefficient = 168
8.4 The international transmission of inflation : some evidence = 173
9 The Monetary View of Exchange Rate Determination = 176
9.1 The asset approach to the exchange rate = 177
9.2 The flex-price monetary approach to the exchange rate = 1
9.3 Introducing expectations = 182
9.4 Rational speculative bubbles = 186
9.5 The sticky-price monetary approach = 188
9.6 Currency substitution = 193
9.7 Empirical evidence on the monetary model = 198
9.8 Recent empirical evidence on the monetary model = 203
9.9 Empirical tests for the existence of speculative bubbles = 2
9.10 Concluding comments = 208
10 The Monetary Model: Further Applications - Real Shocks and Exchange Regime Volatility = 212
10.1 The general equilibrium monetary model = 213
10.2 The monetary model and regime volatility = 215
10.3 Empirical evidence on the general equilibrium approach = 217
10.4 Concluding comments = 224
11 The Portfolio Balance Approach to the Determination of the Exchange Rate = 226
11.1 The portfolio balance model = 230
11.2 Open market purchase of bonds: monetary policy = 235
11.3 An increase in the supply of domestic bonds: fiscal policy = 238
11.4 Asset preference shift = 241
11.5 Econometric evidence on the portfolio balance approach = 242
11.6 Summary and concluding comments = 246
12 Spot and Forward Exchange Rates and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis = 249
12.1 Spot and forward exchange rates = 250
12.2 The efficient markets hypothesis and the forward market for foreign exchange = 255
12.3 Econometric estimation of the efficient markets hypothesis = 259
12.4 A risk premium story to explain why β may not be unity = 263
12.5 Empirically implementing equation(12.20) = 268
12.6 Concluding comments = 274
13 Expectational Explanations for the Rejection of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the "News" = 277
13.1 Peso effects, rational speculative bubbles, and econometric inference = 278
13.2 Technical analysis and chartism = 280
13.3 Survey data, expectations, and risk = 288
13.4 Market microstructure = 291
13.5 The news approach to exchange rate modeling = 294
13.6 Empirical studies of the news approach = 295
13.7 The noise-trader paradigm = 300
14 Currency Crises and Speculative Attacks = 303
14.1 Recent international financial crises = 303
14.2 First-generation speculative attack models = 305
14.3 Second-generation models = 310
14.4 Econometric estimates of speculative attack models = 311
14.5 Microeconomic indicators = 312
14.6 Contagion = 314
14.7 Interest rate, foreign exchange, and credit risk = 315
14.8 Possible policy responses = 317
15 Exchange Rate Target Zones and "Dirty Floating" = 321
15.1 Target zones = 321
15.2 Target zone credibility = 327
15.3 Calculating the devaluation probability - Mizrach's method = 330
15.4 Dirty floating = 332
16 The International Gold Standard : Theory and Experience = 336
16.1 Credibility and exchange rate regimes = 336
16.2 The gold standard during the interwar period = 345
17 The Dollar Standard Today and During the Bretton Woods Era = 353
17.1 The Bretton Woods system to 1971 = 354
17.2 The dollar standard = 358
17.3 Reserve creation and the US and world price levels = 363
17.4 The East Asian dollar standard = 367
18 Monetary Unions = 371
18.1 Benefits and costs of a monetary area : seminal ideas = 371
18.2 Melitz and the covariance of equilibrium real exchange rates approach = 374
18.3 Bayoumi's general equilibrium model of the optimum currency area = 379
18.4 Ad hoc benefits of a pegged exchange rate or common currency = 380
18.5 Estimating shocks = 383
18.6 Fiscal federalism = 385
18.7 More on fiscal policy in a monetary union = 386
19 International Capital Flows = 388
19.1 International money and capital flows = 388
19.2 Eurobanking = 390
19.3 Regulation : the Basle capital accord = 396
19.4 Measuring international capital mobility = 398
19.5 International bond markets = 404
20 Developing Countries, Balance of Payments Adjustment, and the Internationl Monetary Fund = 409
20.1 Developing country exchange rate arrangements : to peg or not to peg? = 410
20.2 Liberalization, the equlibrium real exchange rate, and economic policy = 413
20.3 The IMF : its role = 415
20.4 The IMF's monetary approach to the balance of payments = 419
20.5 The new structuralist debate = 421
21 The Order of Liberalization in Developing Countries = 430
21.1 Distortions and economic performance = 431
21.2 Unhappy experience with financial liberalizaton = 435
21.3 The order of liberalizaton = 437
22 Exchange Rates and Transition Economies = 443
22.1 Economic reforms = 443
22.2 Microeconomic-macroeconomic equilibrium = 444
22.3 Shocks to the equilibrium real exchange rate = 447
22.4 The real exchange rate in asset market equilibrium = 449
22.5 On knowing the correct real exchange rate = 453
22.6 Choice of an exchange rate regime by a TE = 454
23 International Debt = 456
23.1 The debt problem = 456
23.2 Growth of international debt = 459
23.3 Debt and economic growth = 461
23.4 Capital flight = 463
23.5 Governmental and national foreign indebtedness = 464
23.6 The lenders' trap = 465
23.7 Some debt reform proposals = 466
23.8 An international debt facility = 469
24 International Monetary Reform = 472
24.1 Financing or adjustment? = 473
24.2 Designing an international monetary system = 476
24.3 Yen and DM currency blocs = 479
24.4 The costs and benefits of flexible exchange rates = 481
24.5 Alternative plans for the reform of the international monetary system = 485
Bibliography = 490
Author Index = 530
Subject Index = 538