Models behaving badly : why confusing illusion with reality can lead to disaster, on Wall Street and in life
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| 010 | ▼a 2011015006 | |
| 020 | ▼a 9781439164983 | |
| 020 | ▼a 1439164983 | |
| 020 | ▼a 9781439164990 (pbk.) | |
| 035 | ▼a (KERIS)REF000017041866 | |
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| 090 | ▼a 003 ▼b D435m | |
| 100 | 1 | ▼a Derman, Emanuel ▼0 AUTH(211009)136704. |
| 245 | 1 0 | ▼a Models behaving badly : ▼b why confusing illusion with reality can lead to disaster, on Wall Street and in life / ▼c Emanuel Derman. |
| 260 | ▼a New York : ▼b Free Press, ▼c c2011. | |
| 300 | ▼a v, 231 p. : ▼b ill. ; ▼c 22 cm. | |
| 504 | ▼a Includes bibliographical references (p. 207-216) and index. | |
| 505 | 0 | ▼a Models. A foolish consistency ; Metaphors, models, and theories -- Models behaving. The absolute ; The sublime -- Models behaving badly. The inadequate ; Breaking the cycle -- Appendix: Escaping bondage. |
| 600 | 1 0 | ▼a Derman, Emanuel. |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Mathematical models ▼x Social aspects. |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Theory (Philosophy) ▼x Social aspects. |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Metaphor ▼x Social aspects. |
| 945 | ▼a KLPA |
소장정보
| No. | 소장처 | 청구기호 | 등록번호 | 도서상태 | 반납예정일 | 예약 | 서비스 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | 소장처 중앙도서관/서고6층/ | 청구기호 003 D435m | 등록번호 111759139 (1회 대출) | 도서상태 대출가능 | 반납예정일 | 예약 | 서비스 |
컨텐츠정보
책소개
Emanuel Derman was a quantitative analyst (Quant) at Goldman Sachs, one of the financial engineers whose mathematical models usurped traders' intuition on Wall Street. The reliance traders put on such quantitative analysis was catastrophic for the economy, setting off the series of financial crises that began to erupt in 2007 with the mortgage crisis and from which we're still recovering. Here Derman looks at why people--bankers in particular--still put so much faith in these models, and why it's a terrible mistake to do so.Though financial models imitate the style of physics by using the language of mathematics, ultimately they deal with human beings. Their similarity confuses the fundamental difference between the aims and possible achievements of the phsyics world and that of the financial world. When we make a model involving human beings, we are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit without cutting off some of the essential parts. Physicists and economists have been too enthusiastic to recognize the limits of their equations in the sphere of human behavior--which of course is what economics is all about. Models.Behaving.Badly includes a personal account Derman's childhood encounter with failed models--the utopia of the kibbutz, his experience as a physicist on Wall Street, and a look at the models quants generated: the benefits they brought and the problems they caused. Derman takes a close look at what a model is, and then he highlights the differences between the success of modeling in physics and its relative failure in economics. Describing the collapse of the subprime mortgage CDO market in 2007, Derman urges us to stop relying on these models where possible, and offers suggestions for mending these models where they might still do some good. This is a fascinating, lyrical, and very human look behind the curtain at the intersection between mathematics and human nature.
정보제공 :
저자소개
이매뉴얼 더만(지은이)
콜롬비아 대학교(Columbia University)의 교수이며 금융 공학 프로그램을 주관하고 있다. 남아프리카에서 태어났지만 대부분의 직장 생활을 맨해튼에서 보냈다. 소립자 상호작용의 통일장 이론에 대한 연구를 하면서 이론 물리학자로 시작했다. 1980년대 AT&T 벨 연구소에서 비즈니스 모델링을 위한 프로그래밍 언어를 개발했다. 1985년부터 2002년까지 월 스트리트에서 일하면서 블랙-더만-토이(Black-Derman-Toy) 이자율 모델과 국소 변동성 모델을 공동 개발했다. 이전 저서인 『퀀트』(승산, 2007)와『Models.Behaveing.Badly』(Free Press, 2012)는 모두 <비즈니스위크(BusinessWeek)>의 연간 상위 도서 10위권에 들었다.
