CONTENTS
Preface = ⅲ
Foreword = ⅴ
Tables = xiii
Summary = xv
Acknowledgments = xxi
Contributors = xxiii
Section I China's Future = 1
Chapter One LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION IN CHINA: IMPLICATIONS FOR DOMESTIC AND REGIONAL STABILITY / Michael D. Swaine = 3
Introduction = 3
Sources of Leadership Instability = 3
The Succession Dilemma = 4
The Successor Leadership = 6
Beyond the Inner Circle: Surviving Elders, Once Defeated Challengers, and Princelings = 10
Potential Policy Challenges = 12
Scenarios of Leadership Conflict = 14
Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region = 19
Chapter Two POST-DENG CHINA AND NORTHEAST ASIA: INVITATION TO INSTABILITY? / Jae-Cheol Kim ; Hong Pyo Lee = 23
Introduction = 23
Leadership Succession, Power Struggle, and the Potential for Political Turmoil = 25
The Rise of Nationalism in China and Its Impact On Northeast Asia = 33
Concluding Observations = 38
Section II Regional Military Capabilities = 41
Chapter Three MILITARYTECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION AND REGIONAL STABILITY IN EAST ASIA / Ashley J. Tellis = 43
Introduction = 43
Understanding the Nature of Destabilizing Military Technologies = 46
Identifying Destabilizing Military Technologies in the East Asian Context = 51
Strategic Technologies = 52
Force Projection Technologies = 57
Battlespace Denial Technologies = 68
Towards A Response = 70
Chapter Four PUTTING MUZZLES ON THE "DRAGONS": MILITARY BUILDUP AND REGIONAL SECURITY IN EAST ASIA / Taehyun Kim = 75
Introduction: The Region in Perspective = 75
The Muitary Buildup in East Asia: Trend and Possible Causes = 78
Recent Patterns = 78
Why Do Nations Arm? = 83
Why Do East Asian "Dragons" Arm-A Regression Analysis = 86
Putting Muzzles on the "Dragons": Some Preliminary : Prescriptions = 93
Section III Future International Economic Arrangements and Trends = 97
Chapter Five THE WORLD TRADING SYSTEM IN CRISIS: THE UNITED STATES, EAST ASIA, AND THE 'NO-PATSY' PRINCIPLE / Julia Lowell = 99
Introduction = 99
The False Threat of Emergent Regionalism = 103
The Triumph of the 'No-Patsy' Principle = 108
Assessing Costs and Benefits of the 'No-Patsy' Principle = 112
Conclusion = 115
Chapter Six THE EAGLE, THE GOOSE, AND THE DRAGON: GAGEMATES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE ORDER? / Jin-Young Chung = 117
Introduction = 117
The Setting = 120
Major Players = 124
Hovering Eagle = 124
Leading Goose = 128
Awakening Dragon = 132
And A Little Tiger = 136
Can They Live Together? = 138
Conclusion = 144
Section IV The Future of the U.S.-Korean Alliance = 147
Chapter Seven FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND THE U.S.-ROK ALLIANCE / Norman D. Levin = 149
Introduction = 149
Critical Assumptions Underlying the U.S.-ROK Security Alliance = 150
Potential Developments Adversely Affecting the U.S.-ROK Alliance = 154
Prospects, Impact, and Potential Countermeasures = 162
Methodology = 163
Conclusions and Policy Implications = 165
Potential Countermeasures = 166
Chapter Eight FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND KOREA / Hyun-DongKim = 169
Introduction = 169
The Near Term Setting: Potential Areas of Policy Friction = 171
America: Redefining a Post-Cold War Order = 171
Korea: Adjusting to New Realities = 173
Diplomatic Normalization Between the United States = 175
U.S. Forces in Korea and Their Changing Role = 177
The North Korean Nuclear Program = 179
From me Armistice Arrangements to a New Peace Regime = 182
The Mid and Long Term Setting = 184
Power Restructuring and Dynamics in Northeast Asia = 184
The Reunification Process = 187
Policy Implications for the United States = 189
U.S. North Korea Relations = 189
Changes in the Regional Power Structure = 191
The Future of U.S. Forces in Korea = 192
Section V The Future of U.S.-Japan Relations = 195
Chapter Nine THE FUTURE OF JAPAN-U.S. SECURITY RELATIONS: THE CHALLENGE OF ADVERSITY TO ALLIANCE DURABILITY / Courtney Purrington = 197
Introduction = 197
Theoretical Insights into the Durability of Alliances = 199
Transformation of the Alliance Relationship during the Cold War = 203
Post-Cold War Roles of the Japan-U.S. Alliance: Benefits of Alliance Maintenance = 205
Deterrence A gainst a Common Threat = 205
The Alliance as an Insurance Regime = 206
The Alliance as a Regional Stabilizing Force = 210
The Alliance as a Basic Political Framework for Cooperation = 211
Costs of the Alliance Relationship = 213
Security Alternatives for Japan = 213
Opportunity Costs: Security Alternatives for the United States = 217
Hazards for Alliance Maintenance = 218
Hedging about the Future of the Alliance Relationship = 218
Inequities in Burdensharing and Decisionsharing = 219
Economic Friction = 223
Divergent Responses in a Crisis Affecting Mutual Security = 225
Conclusions = 228
Chapter Ten PROSPECTS FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN RELATIONSHIP IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA / Myonwoo Lee = 229
Introduction = 229
The Framework of Analysis = 230
U.S. Foreign Policy = 231
Japanese Foreign Policy Options = 232
Four Types of U.S.-Japan Relationship = 234
Global Partnership = 234
U.S.-Dominant Relationship ("Asymmetrical" vs. "Symmetrical") = 235
Japan-Dominant Relationship = 236
Regional Rivalry ("Single-Headed" vs. "Multi-Headed") = 237
Interactions Among the Four Relationships = 237
Internal Considerations = 238
External Considerations = 242
Possible Courses of Future Development = 245
Korean Views on the U.S.-Japan Bilateral Relationship = 246
