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Leasing is one of today s more complex forms of financing, and, unless you have extensive experience in this arena, making informed decisions can be difficult. Over the life of a lease, its risks and returns change, and the factors that affect the risks and returns also change. In Managing Lease Portfolios , Townsend Walker, an expert in this field, explains how to evaluate the risk of lease portfolios as well as hedge their long-term, non-traded risks. Here, you'll learn how to apply various financial tools to your portfolio of leases and discover the work that goes into each step-such as measuring the risks of a lease, calculating the returns, and estimating the effects of diversification. Many of the ideas and concepts found within this comprehensive resource have existed for a number of years in the fields of foreign exchange, interest rate and credit derivatives, and the bond and stock markets. This book adapts and applies these concepts to managing leases. Then it illustrates how you can implement these new concepts through concrete models that have been proven to work in the real world.

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Preface.

Chapter 1. What a Lease Looks Like.

Reasons to Lease Rather Than Buy.

Characteristics of a Lease.

The Way a Lease Works.

Why Leasing is Different.

Attractions of a Lease to a Lessor.

Setting the Rent on a Lease.

The Different Kinds of Leases.

Leases as a Set of Cash Flows.

The Contributions of Rent, Equipment and Taxes.

Differences Between a Leveraged Lease and a Single Investor Lease.

Factors that Contribute to Lease Value.

Your Lease Portfolio.

Chapter 2. Equipment Risk.

Factors Affecting Future Equipment Values.

Physical.

Economic - Macro.

Economic - Demand.

Economic - Supply.

Political.

Secondary Market.

Lessee.

Lease Contract.

Principles for Estimating Equipment Values.

Bases for Measuring Equipment Risk.

Estimating Future Equipment Values.

Decay Curve and Volatility Evaluation Model.

Statistical Evaluation Model.

Behavioral Evaluation Model.

Factor Evaluation Model.

Data.

Chapter 3. Credit Risk.

Probability of Default.

Models.

Business Cycles.

Observations.

Migration.

Conclusions.

Default and Migration Model.

Regimes.

Recoveries.

Contractual Claims.

Model Results.

Chapter 4. A Tool for Risk Pricing Leases.

No Default or Default.

Cure or Bankruptcy.

Reaffirmation or Workout.

Estimated Loss.

Inputs to the Risk Pricing Tool.

Outputs of the Risk Pricing Tool.

Reserves and Capital.

Return.

Chapter 5. Tax Risk.

Models of Tax Rate Change.

Results of the Tax Model.

Tax Structure Risk.

Chapter 6. Options in a Lease.

Types of Options.

Purchase Option.

Renewal Option.

The Value of a Purchase Option.

The Value of an Early Buyout Option.

Interest Rate Model.

EBO Valuation Model

Chapter 7. Lease Returns.

Separating the Returns.

Calculating the Risks.
To Sell or Hold.

To Hold.

Or to Sell.

Chapter 8. Diversification.

Types of Diversification.

Correlation.

Depiction of Correlation and Diversificatio

Equations for Correlation and Portfolio Diversification.

Estimating Correlation Coefficients for Credit.

Estimating Correlation Coefficients for Equipment.

Once Diversified, Always Diversified?

Probability of Default and Equipment Values.

Chapter 9 - Factor Analysis.

Organizing the Analysis.

An Example of the Analysis on Your Portfolio.

Extensions of Basic Factor Analysis.

Benefits.

Chapter 10. Portfolio Risk and Return.

Portfolio Theory.

How Much Risk.

Contribution of the New Lease.

An Efficient Portfolio Today, and Tomorrow.

Chapter 11. Hedging a Leasing Portfolio.

Credit Risk.

Credit Default Swaps.

Factor Hedges.

Equipment Risk.

Selling the Equipment for Future Delivery.

Insurance.

Chapter 12. Portfolio Management in a Leasing Company.

Business Model.

Key Concepts.

Functions.

Risk-Adjusted Returns.

Organization.

Analytical Tools.

Integrated Portfolio Management.

Lessons Learned.

Origination and Buying Guidelines.

Equipment Guidelines.

Early Warning Systems.

Examples of Integrated Portfolio Management.

Measuring Performance.

Bibliography.

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