| 000 | 00000cam u2200205 a 4500 | |
| 001 | 000045851037 | |
| 005 | 20250526131532 | |
| 008 | 151124s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng d | |
| 010 | ▼a 2015007310 | |
| 020 | ▼a 9780804136693 (hardcover) | |
| 020 | ▼z 9780804136709 (ebook) | |
| 035 | ▼a (KERIS)REF000017743322 | |
| 040 | ▼a DLC ▼b eng ▼e rda ▼c DLC ▼d DLC ▼d 211009 | |
| 050 | 0 0 | ▼a HB3730 ▼b .T47 2015 |
| 082 | 0 0 | ▼a 303.49 ▼2 23 |
| 084 | ▼a 303.49 ▼2 DDCK | |
| 090 | ▼a 303.49 ▼b T347s | |
| 100 | 1 | ▼a Tetlock, Philip E. ▼q (Philip Eyrikson), ▼d 1954- ▼0 AUTH(211009)60335. |
| 245 | 1 0 | ▼a Superforecasting : ▼b the art and science of prediction / ▼c Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. |
| 250 | ▼a First edition. | |
| 260 | ▼a New York : ▼b Crown Publishers, ▼c 2015. | |
| 300 | ▼a 340 p. : ▼b ill. ; ▼c 25 cm. | |
| 504 | ▼a Includes bibliographical references (p. 291-328) and index. | |
| 520 | ▼a "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- ▼c Provided by publisher. | |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Economic forecasting. |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Forecasting. |
| 700 | 1 | ▼a Gardner, Dan, ▼d 1968-. |
| 945 | ▼a KLPA |
소장정보
| No. | 소장처 | 청구기호 | 등록번호 | 도서상태 | 반납예정일 | 예약 | 서비스 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | 소장처 중앙도서관/서고6층/ | 청구기호 303.49 T347s | 등록번호 111745188 (2회 대출) | 도서상태 대출가능 | 반납예정일 | 예약 | 서비스 |
컨텐츠정보
책소개
From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions
?
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people?including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer?who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
?
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future?whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life?and is destined to become a modern classic.
정보제공 :
저자소개
댄 가드너(지은이)
언론인이자 강연자이며 《이유 없는 두려움(Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear)》, 《앨빈 토플러와 작별하라(Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best)》의 저자다. 하버드 대학교 심리학과 스티븐 핑커(Steven Pinker) 교수는 《앨빈 토플러와 작별하라》를 두고 “기자, 정치가, 학자 그리고 그들의 말을 듣는 사람들이 꼭 읽어야 할” 작품이라고 평했다. 전미 신문상, 미치너(Michener) 상, 국제앰네스티 캐나다미디어 상, 캐나다 기자협회 상, 캐나다 과학저술가협회 상 등을 수상했다.
Philip Tetlock(지은이)