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This book, an introduction to statistical inference, has evolved from material used in a first-year undergraduate statistics course at the University of Aberdeen. It relates to the collection of data to answer specific questions and to the interpretation of these data and data collected by others.

This book, an introduction to statistical inference, has evolved from material used in a first-year undergraduate statistics course at the University of Aberdeen. It relates to the collection of data to answer specific questions and to the interpretation of these data and data collected by others.

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CONTENTS
Preface = xiii
Acknowledgements = xiv
Introduction = xv
1 Populations and samples = 1
 1.1 Populations = 1
 1.2 Samples = 2
 1.3 How to choose a (simple) random sample = 4
 Summary = 7
 Exercises = 7
2 Tabular and graphical summaries of data = 9
 2.1 Introduction = 9
 2.2 Kinds of data = 9
 2.3 Summarizing qualitative data = 10
 2.4 Summarizing quantitative data = 14
 2.5 Population distributions for continuous variates = 20
 Summary = 21
 Exercises = 22
3 Numerical summary of data-sample statistics = 33
 3.1 Measures of location = 33
 3.2 Which measure of location? = 35
 3.3 Variance and standard deviation = 36
 3.4 Notation = 37
 3.5 Grouped data = 38
 3.6 Variability of sample means = 41
 Summary = 42
 Exercises = 43
4 Association between variables = 46
 4.1 Introduction = 46
 4.2 Correlation = 47
 4.3 Simple linear regression = 49
 4.4 A real association? = 56
 4.5 Cause and effect = 59
 Summary = 59
 Exercises = 59
5 Testing hypotheses = 65
 5.1 Introduction = 65
 5.2 Probability = 65
 5.3 Probability distributions = 67
 5.4 Testing a hypothesis = 72
 5.5 Problems of hypothesis testing = 78
 5.6 Estimation = 80
 Summary = 81
 Exercises = 81
6 Published statistics = 85
 6.1 The collection of data = 85
 6.2 UK published statistics = 86
 6.3 Reliability = 90
 6.4 Consistency = 91
 6.5 Official statistics in the developing countries = 92
 Summary = 94
 Exercises = 94
7 Delving in tables = 95
 7.1 Introduction = 95
 7.2 Tabular presentation = 95
 7.3 Writing about tables = 97
 Summary = 98
 Exercises = 98
8 Changes with time-index numbers = 103
 8.1 Introduction = 103
 8.2 Simple indices = 103
 8.3 Weighted indices = 104
 8.4 Comments on the Laspeyres(L) and Paasche(P) indices = 106
 8.5 Changing the base = 106
 8.6 UK Index of Retail Prices = 107
 8.7 UK Index of Industrial Production = 108
 Summary = 109
 Exercises = 109
9 Demography-introduction = 111
 9.1 The importance of demographic studies = 111
 9.2 Dynamics of population change = 112
 9.3 Demographic transition = 112
 9.4 Age-sex profiles = 113
 9.5 Cohorts  = 119
 Summary = 120
 Exercises = 120
10 Components of population change = 122
 10.1 Death = 122
 10.2 Marriage = 130
 10.3 Fertility(live births) = 131
 10.4 Migration = 133
 Summary = 134
 Exercises = 134
11 Population projection = 139
 11.1 Reliability of projections = 139
 11.2 An example = 140
 Summary = 142
 Exercises = 142
12 Changes with time-times series = 144
 12.1 Introduction = 144
 12.2 Smoothing times series = 144
 12.3 Components of time series = 147
 Summary = 150
 Exercises = 150
13 Data analysis and the computer = 152
 13.1 The computer = 152
 13.2 The analysis = 153
 Summary = 160
 Exercises = 160
14 Social surveys = 161
 14.1 The basic framework = 161
 14.2 Pilot study = 161
 14.3 Methods of data collection = 162
 14.4 Confidentiality = 165
 14.5 Questionnaire design = 165
 14.6 Analysis = 170
 14.7 The report = 171
 Summary = 171
 Exercises = 172
15 Schemes of investigation = 174
 15.1 Introduction = 174
 15.2 Problems = 174
 15.3 Matching = 179
 15.4 Randomization = 180
 Summary = 181
 Exercises = 181
16 Controlled experiments = 183
 16.1 Twin studies = 183
 16.2 'Blocking' = 184
 16.3 Confounding = 186
 16.4 Factorial treatment combinations = 186
 16.5 Clinical trials = 188
 Summary = 189
 Exercises = 189
17 Sampling schemes = 191
 17.1 Introduction = 191
 17.2 Systematic sampling = 191
 17.3 Simple random sampling from a sequence = 192
 17.4 Stratified sampling = 193
 17.5 Multistage sampling = 195
 17.6 Quota sampling = 198
 17.7 Standard errors = 198
 Summary = 199
 Exercises = 199
18 Longitudinal studies and interrupted time series = 201
 18.1 prevalence = 201
 18.2 Incidence = 201
 18.3 Cross-sectional versus longitudinal surveys = 202
 18.4 Interrupted time series studies = 203
 Summary = 208
 Exercises = 209
19 Smoking and lung cancer = 210
 19.1 Introduction = 210
 19.2 Experiments = 210
 19.3 published figures = 210
 19.4 Retrospective studies = 211
 19.5 Prospective studies = 211
 Summary = 212
 Exercises = 212
20 An overview = 214
Glossary of symbols = 217
Index = 219