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| 008 | 010919s2001 enk b 001 0 eng d | |
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| 020 | ▼a 0471497185 (alk. paper) | |
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| 082 | 0 4 | ▼a 658.403 ▼2 21 |
| 090 | ▼a 658.403 ▼b D795a | |
| 100 | 1 | ▼a Drummond, Helga. |
| 245 | 1 4 | ▼a The art of decision making : ▼b mirrors of imagination, masks of fate / ▼c Helga Drummond. |
| 260 | ▼a Chichester, England ; ▼a New York : ▼b John Wiley Sons, ▼c c2001. | |
| 300 | ▼a xii, 306 p. ; ▼c 24 cm. | |
| 504 | ▼a Includes bibliographical references (p. [287]-297) and index. | |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Decision making. |
| 650 | 0 | ▼a Decision making ▼v Case studies. |
소장정보
| No. | 소장처 | 청구기호 | 등록번호 | 도서상태 | 반납예정일 | 예약 | 서비스 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | 소장처 중앙도서관/교육보존A/6 | 청구기호 658.403 D795a | 등록번호 111198301 (1회 대출) | 도서상태 대출가능 | 반납예정일 | 예약 | 서비스 |
컨텐츠정보
책소개
Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb)
This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.
Examples showcased include:
The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome
This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.
Schon immer gab es Spannungen zwischen jenen, die glaubten, dass die besten Entscheidungen auf Zahlen und Berechnungen basieren, und jenen, die ihre Ansichten auf anspruchsvollere Kriterien uber das Wesen der Zukunft stutzen. In der gangigen Literatur wird das Risiko nach statistischen und probabilistischen Methoden berechnet, wodurch der Eindruck entsteht, dass man das Risiko berechnen und damit steuern kann. Dieses Buch will zeigen, dass solche Annahmen zwar nicht ganzlich falsch sind, aber nur einen Teil der Wahrheit beinhalten. Dabei spielt es keine Rolle, wie klar Aufgaben definiert sind und wie oft wir miteinander sprechen - nichts ist wirklich eindeutig. Autorin Helga Drummond erlautert, dass Vieles von dem, was wir als real bezeichnen, in Wirklichkeit mehrdeutig ist und sich verandert. Sie stutzt sich dabei weniger auf die Statistik als vielmehr auf die Dynmaik des Wandels und verbindet das Risiko mit der Entscheidungsfindung im Unternehmen. Damit bietet sie eine ganzheitliche Betrachtung uber das Wesen des Risikos und des Entscheidungsfindungsprozesses.
New feature
Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb)This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.
Examples showcased include:
The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome
This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.
정보제공 :
목차
CONTENTS Acknowledgements = xiii Introduction = 1 The questions = 5 Ambiguity lurks = 6 The imagined world = 6 The rutted road = 7 Shifting tides = 7 The ripening of events = 8 'All is human' = 9 Are you competent or lucky? = 9 1 The Clock That Struck Thirteen : The Challenge of Sense Making = 11 'Two dead fish' = 13 Hanged in the middle of the play = 17 The clock that struck twelve? = 21 The clock that really did strike thirteen = 24 The perils of experience = 27 Turning a drama into a crisis = 28 'It can't be' = 30 2 The Morning After = 35 The lantern and the mirror = 36 'Oh what have you done?' = 38 Rolls meets Royce = 42 Divorce your husband without him noticing = 43 Sentence first, verdict later = 46 The ghosts of Christmas = 47 The magnolia years = 49 The lantern flickers = 50 3 The Dark Side of the Moon = 54 An imagined world = 56 Received images = 58 The dark side of the moon = 60 Love is like...? = 63 Hidden possibilities = 65 From hell = 67 Strangled by a dish of eels = 68 All that jazz = 71 4 Ghosts and Shadows : Reflections on Information and Decision Making = 77 Green light spells danger = 79 Do you understand? = 80 Painting God = 83 Creating confusion = 86 Ghosts and shadows = 87 5 Tricks of Mind = 92 D$$e'$$ j$$bprime a$$ vu? = 94 Why bad publicity is better than none = 97 Weigh anchor = 97 'It could be you' = 99 'Wow! Grab it!' = 102 'Too soon deject and too soon elate' = 104 Ending the pain = 105 6 The Essential Lie : Exploring the Myth-making Process = 106 Building on mud = 109 Dressed to kill = 111 Waving the magic wand = 113 Writing the hymn sheet = 114 Singing from the hymn sheet = 117 The essential lie = 118 The suspicion of witchcraft = 120 'Then came the cat' = 123 'An intensity beyond belief' = 124 7 High Tides and Green Grass : The Illusion of Control = 127 Illusion = 128 Feel lucky, punk?' = 130 Lightning strikes = 132 Illusion piles upon illusion = 133 Nothing succeeds like success? = 136 Fine tuning the odds = 136 Water seeping = 141 'Like a child's sparkler' = 141 'A fire the size of a cardboard box' = 142 'Make pumps 4-persons reported' = 143 High tides and green grass - in the desert = 145 8 Tales of the Unexpected : Exploring the Paradox of Consequence = 148 'Kickback' : the paradox of consistency = 149 Problems, problems = 152 The hunter becomes the hunted = 155 Winner's curse = 156 The tale of the boilerman = 157 The Icarus paradox = 159 A runaway bull = 160 The tragedy of the commons = 162 'It was a crucial decision, it was the wrong one' = 163 Brilliant and daft = 165 Chance has got nothing to do with it = 170 9 Riding a Tiger : Escalation in Decision Making = 172 Mounting a tiger = 174 Hidden depths = 177 Promises, promises = 181 All is human = 183 Keeping up appearances = 185 Hell hath no fury = 187 Money sunk and lost = 188 The march of folly = 193 Tomorrow and tomorrow = 195 10 'An Ace of Success' : Knocking at the Door of Fate = 197 The events unfold = 198 'An ace of success' = 208 Escalation = 209 Shifting sands = 210 Fiasco becomes inevitable = 212 Trusting to luck = 213 The fortunes of war = 214 11 The Point of No Return = 216 The scene is a dilapidated hairdresser's shop = 217 'I've only myself to keep' = 220 'Don't clap too loudly' = 221 'Crisis, what crisis?' = 225 'Drifting idly towards eternity' = 227 Red light spells danger = 229 Polishing the chains = 232 Clutching the pole = 235 Skeletons and cobwebs = 237 12 The Art of Decision Making = 240 Rising to the level of events = 240 A dog is for life = 245 Liars serving truth = 248 Take a walk on the wild side = 249 There's a rumour going round = 250 Opposites = 250 Look hard and look twice = 253 Quacks bawling = 254 Buying a 'cut and shut' = 256 Fortune favours the brave = 257 The illusion of alternatives = 259 If at first you don't succeed... = 260 Escaping to reality = 261 Catch a falling knife = 262 Do no harm = 263 Squeezing hands = 265 Blown off-course = 266 Creating luck = 268 Show some emotion? = 268 Puzzled as well as beaten = 270 Ils ne passeront pas = 272 Loving to death = 272 Why ghosts return to haunt = 274 The element of surprise = 277 Sweet are the uses of adversity = 278 The golden chance = 279 Time and tide = 280 Epilogue : A Dancing Star = 281 Transcendent optimism = 284 References = 287 Index = 298