상세정보

Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation.

This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, implementation processes, technical aspects, and examples of application. Each section provides practical guidance, combining technical information with advice on how to implement R/U techniques and processes in real-world corporate environments. Following an examination of general principles involved in quantitatively assessing risks and their impact on value, the book describes the two main probabilistic measures of project value - Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP). The text clearly demonstrates how these metrics are used in individual-project and portfolio management.

By presenting concepts in layman's terms and fully integrating advice related to technical and human characteristics of R/U-related corporate life, this book serves as a complete primer for professionals in any business environment.


What's New in the Second Edition:

정보제공 :

INTRODUCTION
What Companies Really Want to Do
Practical Risk Assessment
You Can Do It
ABOUT RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 
Various Views on the Subject - Einstein Was Never Going to Get 
	There
Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty 
Two Values - The Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected
	Value for the Portfolio (EVP)
Risk Assessment and Risk Management
What Questions Do I Ask and How Do I Integrate the Information? 

RISK ASSESSMENT: GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS AND 
	BENEFITS
Why Risk Assessment? 
Common Language
Holistic Thinking 
Awareness 
Consider Range of Possibilities 
Establish Probabilities 
Communication with Customers and the Public 
Probabilistic Branching 
Relationships between Variables 
Linking of Disciplines 
Checklist - Do Not Take It for Granted 
Updating Estimates
To What Types of Problems Can Risk Assessment Be Applied? 

RISK ASSESSMENT - A PROCESS 
Risk Assessment - The Process 
The Time It Takes to Do It Right, and When to Get Started
What Is Typically Done
What Is Not Typically Done 
What to Provide
Size Does Not Matter (Not That I Was Worried about That) 
Stakeholders

THE PERCEPTION FROM WITHIN - WHY THIS CAN BE 
	SO DARN HARD TO IMPLEMENT
Simple Resistance to Change and Momentum of Old Ways 
Learning How the Organization Really Works
Practitioners Who Have Been Doing It for Years Are Difficult to 
	Change - Newcomers Are Easier to Deal With
Not Invented Here 
Instant Access to Executives - If You Are from Outside, You Are
	Smarter/Better
Turf Wars 
Experts Who Are Not 
Management That Has Limited Appreciation and the Deterministic 
	Mindset
Coming from the Right Place 
Establishing Credibility So You Are Not Just Another Voice in the 
	Wilderness
Time for Preparation of the Organization - Who Benefits?
Ramifications of Implementing a Probabilistic Risk System
For This to Be Effective, Every Part of the Company Must Participate 
Not Just One Time - This Must Be Done Over and Over, Like a Diet 

CONSISTENCY - THE KEY TO A RISK PROCESS
Biggest Bang from Assessing Multiple Opportunities 
Type Consensus Models 
Common Measure
Risk Assessment Vision
Sometimes Better to Be Consistent Than to Be Right
Locking the Model 
Users Will Game the System - The Risk Police
Databasing Inputs and Outputs 
Numbers That Reach Decision Makers 
Forums 
Language
Risk as a Corporate Function

COMMUNICATION 
Communication - Just One Shot
Communication - Why Bother?
Know Your Clients
Focus on Impact and Mitigation 
Mitigation Is Not Enough
Killing Projects 
Diplomatically Handle Winners and Losers 
Communicating the Value of Risk Assessment 
It Starts at the Top 
Create Success Story Presentation 
Web Stuff 

BUILDING A CONSENSUS MODEL
What Is the Question? - Most of the Time and Effort 
Consensus Model
Group Dynamics
Write It Down
Sort It Out
Group Dynamics Again 
Units 
Overarching Categories 
No Such Thing as a Universal Model
Difficult to Get People's Time to Go Through All This

BUILD A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR DIAGRAM
The Contributing Factor Diagram - Getting Started 
Identify and Define Variables 
Ask the Right Question 
Double-Dipping 
Double-Dipping and Counting the Chickens
Fixing the Double-Dipping and Counting the Chickens Problems
CFD-Building Example
Short List of Hints for Building a CFD

EDUCATION - CRITICAL AT THREE LEVELS
Education for Management 
Introductory Class for Risk-Model Builders
Advanced Training for Risk-Model Builders
Organizational Attitude and Training Centers 
Time Demands and Organization of the Education Effort 
Difference between Education and Training

RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGIES 
Different Approaches
Discriminant Function Analysis 
Bayesian Analysis
Decision Trees 
Factor Analysis 
Neural Nets 
The Risk Matrix
Risk Registers 

MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS 
A Bit of History
What Is It Good For? 
Simple Monte Carlo Example
Buckets
How Many Random Comparisons Are Enough?
Output from Monte Carlo Analysis - The Frequency and Cumulative
	Frequency Plots
Interpreting Cumulative Frequency Plots
Combining Monte Carlo Output Curves

DECISIONS AND DISTRIBUTIONS 
Decisions
Just What Is a Distribution? 
Distributions - How to Approach Them
Symmetrical Distributions 
Skewed Distributions 
Spiked Distributions 
Flat Distributions 
Truncated Distributions 
Discrete Distributions 
Bimodal Distributions
Reading Data from a File
Peakedness 
Triangular Distributions
Specific Distribution Types 
Speaking Distributions
Flexibility in the Decision-Making Process

CHANCE OF FAILURE
Chance of Failure - What Is It?
Failure of a Risk Component 
Chance of Failure that Does Not Affect an Input Distribution 
Incorporating Chance of Failure in a Plot of Cumulative Frequency
Another Reason for Chance of Failure 
The Inserting Zeroes Work-Around 
Chance of Failure and Multiple Output Variables 
A Clear Example of the Impact of Chance of Failure 

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND DEPENDENCE 
Introduction to Time-Series Analysis and Dependence
Time-Series Analysis - Why? 
Time-Series Analysis - How?
Time-Series Analysis - Results
Time-Series Analysis That Is Not 
Some Things to Consider 
Dependence - What Is It? 
Independent and Dependent Variables 
Degree of Dependence 
Multiple Dependencies and Circular Dependence
Effect of Dependence on Monte Carlo Output
Dependence - It Is Ubiquitous

RISK-WEIGHTED VALUES AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 
Introduction to Risk-Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis 
Risk-Weighted Values - Why? 
Risk-Weighted Values - How?
The Net Risk-Weighted Value 
The Economic Risk-Weighted Resource (ERWR) Value 
The Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the
	Portfolio (EVP)
Risk-Weighted Values - The Answer
Sensitivity Analysis - Why?
Sensitivity Analysis - How?
Sensitivity Analysis - Results 

WHAT COMPANIES REALLY WANT TO DO 
The Portfolio Effect - Sometimes You Just Do Not Get It
Estimate Budgets 
Estimate Project Value - Two Types: The Expected Value of Success
	(EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP)
Ask the Right Questions to Determine the Quality of the Information
	Being Conveyed

RISK ASSESSMENT EXAMPLES
Introduction
Qualitative Model 
Semi-Quantitative Model
Mini Time-Series Model 
Fate-Transport (Process/Health) Model 
Decision-Tree Conversion 
Legal Model
Comprehensive Risk Assessment Example
EVS/EVP Example

정보제공 :