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Intro -- Contents -- Series Foreword -- Introduction -- Note -- 1 Toward a Behavioral Theory of the Exchange Rate -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 A Behavioral Model -- 1.3 Stochastic Simulation of the Model -- 1.4 Sensitivity Analysis -- 1.5 Numerical Analysis of Deterministic Dynamics -- 1.6 Sensitivity Analysis of the Deterministic Model -- 1.7 Why Crashes Occur -- 1.8 Conclusions -- Appendix: Numerical Values of the Parameters Used in the Base Simulation -- Notes -- References -- 2 Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 International Currency Exposures -- 2.3 Swiss Currency Exposures and Valuation Effects -- 2.4 Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc: Stylized Facts -- 2.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: Country List -- Data and Sources -- Notes -- References -- 3 On the Roles of Different Foreign Currencies in European Bank Lending -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Related Literature -- 3.3 Data and Stylized Facts -- 3.4 Econometric Analysis of Foreign Currency Lending -- 3.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: Data sources and definitions -- Notes -- References -- 4 Understanding Exchange Rate Exposure through Net Foreign Exchange Position Channel -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Literature Review -- 4.3 Data and Methodology -- 4.4 Results -- 4.5 Robustness -- 4.6 Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 5 Strategic Currency Choice in International Trade -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Conceptual Framework and the Literature -- 5.3 Data -- 5.4 Methodology -- 5.5 Results -- 5.6 Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 6 Probability of a Currency Crash and Postcrash Output Performance: Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter? -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Methods of Identifying Currency Crashes and Measuring Output Performance -- 6.3 Causes and Effects of Currency Crises: A Synthesis of Theories in the Literature -- 6.4 Quantitative Analysis -- 6.5 Conclusions -- Appendix 1: Advanced vs. Emerging Market Economies -- Appendix 2: Dating and Severity of Crises and Preexisting Exchange Rate Systems -- Data Appendix: Definition of Variables and Sources of Data -- Notes -- References -- 7 Foreign Currency Denominated Assets and International Shock Absorption in Europe and East Asia -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 A Negative Risk Premium Originating in Foreign Currency Denominated Assets -- 7.3 International Shock Absorption Channels -- 7.4 Empirical Evidence -- 7.5 Conclusions -- Appendix -- Notes -- References -- 8 External Debt and International Trade: Another Mismatch -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Currency Composition of External Debt -- 8.3 Fluctuations in Exchange Rates and Debt Burdens -- 8.4 Implications of the Debt–Trade “Mismatch” -- 8.5 Conclusions -- Appendix -- Sample Period -- Sample Countries -- Notes -- References -- 9 Assessing the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Factor-Augmented Panel Data Approach -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 The Forward Premium Puzzle and the Risk Premium -- 9.3 A Simple CAPM Perspective -- 9.4 Factor-Augmented Panel Data Models -- 9.5 Empirical Analysis -- 9.6 Factor-Augmented Panel Data Regressions -- 9.7 Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 10 The Geopolitics of Ascending Global Currencies -- 10.1 Summary of the Discussion -- 10.2 Which Currencies Are Ascending Global Currencies? -- 10.3 The Two Potentially Ascending Currencies -- 10.4 Three Grand Projects -- 10.5 Currencies as Geopolitical Tools: US Dollar as an Example -- 10.6 Open World vs. Closing Blocs -- 10.7 Reversing the Dynamic toward a Unified Global System -- Notes -- Contributors -- Index -- .